DOW JONES180610

Sorry I haven't updated this for a while I've had no time, now as good a time as any.
I am not a Guru at picking turns and dates..
I just explain what is before me on the Chart.
I applaud those, who have more brains than I do, although sometimes things are just right in you face, but you just need to be able tell the Forrest form the Trees.hmmm..

The Dow to me looks like more upside, since W5 there has been a Minor ABC(or a Major ? it retraced 100% back to W4 plus a bit lol).
One of the main things to note on the Daily Chart is that its now trading above the 200d sma and the 200d ema also note the 7d ,14d & 30d sma are all turning back up through them, this is a Bullish move even though the daily Macd, Stoch & Candle are suggesting a minor top, the candle needs to confirm and don't forget it was formed on Friday night with Monday to come, so chances are it may not confirm.
Note as of W4 the bottom once again is a Adam & Eve bottom with Eve coming first after this acourred at W4 it ran close to 1300 pts aprox so far its run 1/2 of that from 9800 low more to go imo.
Also note from the bounce of W4 it took a little breather around the same Fib level and retested the 30d sma (Yellow) it may do that again (REPEATING PATTERN) or just bounce off the Fib which was taken from the Top of W1 to the Top W5 which gave the 61.8% Fib bounce I will say this is a tad unconventional method but makes sense, the Fib Projection fits it well as well I took that from the top of W1 as well to the bounce point on the 61.8% don't forget these are Local Fibs not Overalls, Bearing that in mind I've added another set of locals from W5 to "C" (Yellow Set) Interesting to see where the 61.8% is and it lines up with the others I'd be expecting that to be good support.(If it is a repeating pattern then this one is more Bullish that is due to the distance between the MA's mainly 50d sma higher so more umph ..Imo)
As we know ABC's fit well with Fibs so which one of the white Arrows is it where its going to bounce too..?
Daily Inds the Macd & Stoch are high but they can stuff around up here for some time or do a bit of sideways, that can cut them some slack seen it before.
The main interest to me is the Dema (Black) is only at 50 (Has a lot more to go) and the Short Entry & Short Exit (Blue & Red) are now above it, this is a Bullish Mode.

I hope you got your head around all of that it gets a lot easier on the Weekly..lol

Daily Chart

The Weekly pretty much is a Blind Freddie..
The Short Entry was Triggered 2 weeks ago note Green Dashed Line.( It has a very good record)
All the other Inds are about to turn unless there is something right out of the Blue or from Left of field.
The 50d sma has been the support now I would expect the 7d (Green) to bounce off it and turn up this could take some time so if we get some sideways that will help the Daily inds cut some slack.
Note the Weekly Dema has turned up as well at 50.(check the last turns) what did it do after that??
Candles are Bullish and the Bollies are opening up the SEB is also on the up..

Weekly Chart

The Monthly is another thing though and don't forget a Monthly Charts Inds Move Slowly check the movement on them since I started the Blog..
But the Monthly is about to through a buy signal check the Inds Dema and Short Exit(Red) plus The Ultimate Oscillator(Yellow) are both above the the Dema saying buy..with the Short Entry (Blue) and Dema still about to turn..hhmmm

Monthly Chart

To round up the Daily needs to retest the Fib or go on with it..
The Weekly will go soon as well as the monthly but there maybe a month in it or 2..imo
Cheers Pete.

DOW JONES 280410

Hi All here's an update at a point in time if you have been following this blog and the Vids we have milked it, pushed it or picked it well to this point.
Now where as for the world market's I would be very cautious.
Atm I'm just day trading stock's.

Things to note on the charts.
1.
Daily Candle Top at the SEC (Blue) 10pts short of the Inverted H&S Target in a W5. ( Bear in mind I could have measured it wrong, on the weekly I had 7pts less and it touched it.)
2.
Weekly Sell signal on the Dema's very similar to W4, Candles a Bear (but its not the EOW yet.)
3.
Monthly Candle has gone through the 50 sma (Blue) only to bounce off the outer Gann Grid, Stoch and Macd on the High side, Candle a Top (but its not the EOM yet.).

Daily Chart.
As I've been saying this is a W5 so when it finishes expect an ABC down, wether that is a down to sideways for a while verus a hard down is yet to be seen.
If you look at the 2 white arrows numbers 1 2 will give some sort of outcome to expect tonight or will it bounce off the Fib from the low of W4 to the last high at the 30ma (Yellow)?
My lowest low S/T would be the 10700 50dma (Blue) if the 30ma dosn't hold 10940 issh.
Imo the Candles a Black Crow they come in pairs (As in white arrow #1) most of the time and can come in 3's (That marks the end of a trend)
All the Daily Inds are heading South with the Short Exit and Entry Demas below the main Dema (Bearish).

Weekly Chart.
On the Weekly the Inverted HS Target was made now the Weekly SE Dema(RED) has been triggered just like W4 (I know its not the EOW yet but I dont think that will change with out a massive up to finish the week it's been trying to trigger for a while.)
The Macd and Stoch are on the down as well.
Candles a bear and can get more so, the Bollies are the most open I've seen them since March 09.
A break of the SEC (Blue) would not be good but could be on the cards.imo

Monthly Chart

DOW JONES 120410

Hi All just up dated the Blog so if any where following one of the old ones best use this one.
Heres a link to the latest Vid it should be in the Video Bar as well.

DOW JONES 090410

Heres the Daily Chart below I've Added a Stanndard Erorr Channel in (Blue) its holding the bottoms and midline quite well.
I've also put in a Revese Fib from W2 to W3 it throws the 161% at the or near to the overall 23.6% Fib (12350 mark) as the Revese Fib from W1 to March Low throws the 161% at the overall 50% Fib and that target was meet so it may want to go to it (12350 mark) Atm I'd be happy with it making the Inverted H & S Target which isn't far away 283pts ishh and this is a W5.
Well what do you know Dow up 103pts (14/04 last night) so only 158 pts issh away from Target.
Heres the close up of the daily candles in the white square you can see theyv'e been building support levels now its close to the Top Bollinger and SEC (Blue) so will it repeat the Candles marked (white arrow) if so the level keeps increasing each time.

Close Up Daily Chart.

Here's the Daily overall chart things to Note W5 isn't as Volatile as W3 so is it sorting itself out at last?
Or is W5 going to be bigger than W3? (That will pee the Bears off)
Note Daily Zero Lag Macd is turning up to a Buy along with the the Dema's.

Daily Chart

Having a look at the Weekly Chart things to note are Bollingers Opening Up the 200d SMA (Purple)is flating out will it start to turn up?
Will the 7d SMA (Green)push through it and the other MA's follow forming a Golden Cross? 
Last time this took place was W4 2003. (Funny That) 
Or will it act as the Top?
To me the Weekly has some more to go imo.
Weekly Inds Zero Lag Macd is still on the up along with the Dema's the Short Entrys ( Blue and Red ) are trying to cross over the main Dema to go Bullish again (White Circle) and no Short Exits have been triggered, Stochastic is toppy but as you can see in the past it can stretch.

Weekly Chart

Looking at the Monthly Chart a Buy Trigger formed February(see inds), the Candles are Bullish (But its not the EOM) like the Weekly Chart the MA's are Crossing 7d (Green) through the 30d (Yellow) the 50d (Blue) is actting same as the 200d on the Weekly.(All SMA)
Pretty powerful stuff if these are crossed and not out of the question.imo
The monthly is also in the Upper or Bullish part of the Gan Grid another big factor to consider imo.
Monthly Stochastic and Zero Lag Macd are high but can flatline being monthly it could take quite sometime for them to top out.
While the monthly Dema has a lot more to go even if it tops at the white dashed line.

Monthly Chart

Ok so for the Round Up.

1. The Logical W5 is meet with a ABC Down (but where is the Top of W5 ?) The Inverse HS Target (So soon, like now now)or at the 161 Fib Projection on the Daily (12350 issh) or Higher.
2. If now at the The Inverse HS Target ABC Down would at most be back to just below W4 noteing the weekly 200d and monthly 50d ma's would have been broken through just.
3. If its the 161 Fib then expect Support at the 200d ma Weekly and at the 50d ma Monthly that would keep the Stanndard Error Channels in tacked and make a stable Chart...imo
4. Then if the MA's are broken on the Weekly and Monthly plus the Gan Grid on the Monthly we then have a "New Bull Market"
5. Or we have a total crash from left field (Can't see it ATM)
6. I sugested the chart was like 2006/07 some time ago.
7. Now I rest my case check the chart its stronger but the faster the down the faster the up now it seems things are less volatile atm ..
8. Then look at the the Boom Now in Resource's better than then?
9. ATM I'm still Bullish on the DOW, Just some more in the Tank or a whole lot more?.
10. Then look a head with no blinkers on either way and expect the unexpected this time it maybe up..lol.

All this is due to TA no FA at all just make of it as you will.
It may just give you some guide or I'm wrong.
Trade Well and Safe.
Cheers Pete.

Dow Jones 070210

Here's a link to my latest Vid DOW 200210 
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdZAdrR86XM
Update to the Blog DOW 200210 is below at the bottom..lol
Cheers Pete
Dow 150210
http://haspetedow150210.blogspot.com/2010/02/dow-150210.html

Call me thick ...you have a blog so just keep adding to it aaaa Wink...lol
So updates below...

Here's a Update on the update that’s out of date lol..
The Hammer (SPRING) still needs to confirm…

Bear that in mind.
It's also the largest one on the chart as for rejection off the low leaving the largest wick.

The Dow Charts the Inds still haven't triggered a buy after last night (But it should be there after Monday night if the Dow is up) Expect for a very small hint on the Short Entry.
There was a false( We know that now) buy trigger earlier in the week on the daily and weekly and at the time I did warn it wasn't the end of the week. 2 Days later we had a 220 pt drop in one night followed by another big trade down and recovery last night volatile times.

Note the Yellow Arrow I'll get back to it later.

Also taking into account what Volt is saying.

Volt Quote.."Ferrera has a system where he averages NYSE advancers less decliners over a 18 day period. When it gets below -400 and you have an up close it is a buy if the market has dropped at least 14%.Well last night got under -400 and also closed up but the market has only fallen 9%.

So it isn't a valid buy but probably worth something in the short term".

Heres Firdays Intraday chart showing a Inverted H&S

Will it retest the neckline or just keep going?
Chance's are it will be a good bounce if the H&S dosn't fail, the target will be +150 /170 pts above the RS Neckline Break..imo

The Stoch is quite high but it can Stretch & Volumes Up.

Daily Chart.

So was the last 2 days a capitulation low and bottoms in.?

A ADAM & EVE Bottom with Eve's rounded bottom first..or are we seeing a Adam first with Eve to follow?
It would suit my threoy either way that this is a wave 4 its also close to the level, I thought wave 4 would be in the vid I did 2 weeks ago http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nwiYBzGBg8

Note the bounce on the Daily Chart was off the bottom bollie..not a Fib or trendline unless I've got them wrong, keep in the back of your the mind that a retest of the low may still be on.

Now to the Yellow Arrows: The Top one is showning the 30d ma (Yellow) trying to push the 50d ma (Blue) down, This is Dangerous country if these 2 cross. Last time they came close was at the First Yellow Arrow near Wave 2.

Note what happened then when the 7d ma (Green) & 14d ma (Red) turned up to cross through them, This is on the cards here to if it repeats it could be a Cracker of a Run Up just looking at the distance from the MA's the Candles are but that wouldn't be a normal Wave5 unless it's a blow off Top..imo

http://http//i73.photobucket.com/albums/i204/haspete/DOW-070210-DLY-INDS.gif

Weekly Chart.

On the Weekly the bounce was off the 30d ma(yellow)also mentioned in the vid and has been support before.

Both Monthly & Weekly Candles are Spining Tops so undecided sentiment, the Hammer (SPRING) must confirm to make the Weekly's act as a Inverted Hammer..The Monthly's could still be anything lets hope for a Bullish Engulfing.
Daily & Weekly Inds have room to move this would support a move up to Wave 5 to complete the Inverted H&S Target 11274 (I H&S make there targets 90% of the time)before a ABC down.

It needs to bounce off the Black Line or Trouble..imo

The Green & Red lines are buy sell triggers.

Monthly Chart

The Monthly charts Inds are on the high side EXCEPT the DEMA.(Trust the Dema imo) but they could tweek out a Wave 5 the Dema could do a lot more.. imo

If we look at horizontal support on the monthly chart back as far as 1999 (Yellow Rectangles & Blue Lines)it the market is saying this is where it should be not above or below but we live in volatile times..

A Wave 4 can't retrace more than 50% of Wave 3 that's just below 9500 if the count is valid.( If it does all bets are off)

Or is this a consolidation period coming up after wave 5? Good Question.. ATPIT I don't think so...we live in volatile times, but that can change, just be aware that after Wave 5 a larger correction maybe on the way.

The other thing to note on the monthly is the MA's and the Inds around 2003(Yelow Line)

If you all thought that was a great run look at now.(that was due to a commodities boom, what do we have now? after all the banking rubbish is sorted out.)

Expect the unexpeted...imo

Sure it's been a larger fall but also a faster recovery to a point of fair value.?

To round up if long tight trailing stops on either the Dow or XJO.

Cheers Pete


DOW 150210

This Week should be a turn.imo


Note the weekly inds..

So on the daily chart last weeks Hammer failed to confirm, now we have another & if we add the last 3 candles together we get a bullish candle & candle formation (2 Green Soliders) the last candle is allso sitting the small fib with the 14d ma (Red) flating out & the small SEC (White Dashed) turning up.

The Worry that remains is the 30d & 50d ma's (Yellow & Blue)
But if we have a up from here they will turn back up.

 The Weekly Charts Short Entry has been triggered right where I thought it would, its been pretty good in the past for buy & sell signals also the 30d ma (Yellow) is atm the support level

The Monthly Charts Inds are still high so I'm still thinking this is a W4 & now we are headed to W5 if thats the case we will have to see whats the go then one would be expecting a ABC down. 

Well what do you know I started writting this on Monday just about to post on Wednesday (West Aussie Time ) and the Dow bounces 170 pts..lol


Cheers Pete





DOW 200210




Hi All,

So are the Bulls back in town or are they ripping it apart?

Well last week went pretty much to plan W4 is complete and now we are in W5.Imo

I'd expect this week to be pretty similar having said that now watch it fall apart. lol.


Daily Chart

A few things to keep a eye on are the Spinning Top Candle made on Friday, you will see that its sitting on the 50d ma ( Blue ) with its tail on the 30d ma ( Yellow ) one would expect this to be support..

To be a Spinning Top it needs to confirm with a lower open and close with those ma's there I'd be saying it won't and would be expecting another strong up tonight bear in mind it may trade down to then and close higher a retest of support.

With 2 Eves and 1 Adam that’s a pretty strong bottom along with the ma's imo.

Also note the 7d ma (Green) has move up through the 14d ma (Red) Just as I thought a few Blog's back imo this will push the 30d ma up through the 50d along with the 7 and 14 causing a Golden Cross, as I've said before this could lead to a fast up which is not usual in a W5.

THAT COULD CAUSE A BLOW OFF TOP..NOT GOOD CHARTWISE.IMO.


SO TREAD WITH CARE AND BE AWARE TRADE THE TRADE YOU SEE NOT THE ONE YOU WANT TO SEE.

In saying that I must admit the Daily and Weekly Charts are looking very Bullish the Monthly is still looking for a Top but it may take some time or come at W5..imo

Something else to look at is there maybe a CUP forming on the Daily it may Double Top @ 10730 issh then form a Handle.
If it dose the Target would be around 11600 issh that would take care of the Inverted H&S Target of 11281 issh.

Or it may Double Top there then go down to the last low 9830 .

Atm I'm trying to show you all that is possible & has a good probably so you are aware of them and make your decisions at the time you need too, not when I update the Blog or Vid's we live in volatile times and that maybe too late.
As I said last week what is fair value look back to lasts weeks monthly chart keep that in mind...
And trade what they give you.

See the close up insert below.

This Weeks Quote of the Week is from Robbbbbbb. and pretty good advice..imo


"Another scenario, would be that we bolt back to the highs and would trap many and make the chart very unstable, and this is my reasoning for being patience and still a little cautious."

But then the Market will do its thing right or wrong so if its wrong look out..imo.

Heres the Over All Daily Chart since March note the green arrows on the MA's after each cross and the wave count.
Plus the Inds note the white arrows on the Dema last window and what was the out come after the SE & SE (Red-Blue) crossed above the Dema (Black) in the past.?

That should give you something to think about I'll Finish it in the morning Cheers Pete