Here's a link to my latest Vid DOW 200210
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdZAdrR86XM
Update to the Blog DOW 200210 is below at the bottom..lol
Cheers Pete
Dow 150210
http://haspetedow150210.blogspot.com/2010/02/dow-150210.html
Call me thick ...you have a blog so just keep adding to it aaaa Wink...lol
So updates below...
Here's a Update on the update that’s out of date lol..
The Hammer (SPRING) still needs to confirm…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdZAdrR86XM
Update to the Blog DOW 200210 is below at the bottom..lol
Cheers Pete
Dow 150210
http://haspetedow150210.blogspot.com/2010/02/dow-150210.html
Call me thick ...you have a blog so just keep adding to it aaaa Wink...lol
So updates below...
Here's a Update on the update that’s out of date lol..
The Hammer (SPRING) still needs to confirm…
Bear that in mind.
It's also the largest one on the chart as for rejection off the low leaving the largest wick.
It's also the largest one on the chart as for rejection off the low leaving the largest wick.
The Dow Charts the Inds still haven't triggered a buy after last night (But it should be there after Monday night if the Dow is up) Expect for a very small hint on the Short Entry.
There was a false( We know that now) buy trigger earlier in the week on the daily and weekly and at the time I did warn it wasn't the end of the week. 2 Days later we had a 220 pt drop in one night followed by another big trade down and recovery last night volatile times.
There was a false( We know that now) buy trigger earlier in the week on the daily and weekly and at the time I did warn it wasn't the end of the week. 2 Days later we had a 220 pt drop in one night followed by another big trade down and recovery last night volatile times.
Note the Yellow Arrow I'll get back to it later.
Also taking into account what Volt is saying.
Volt Quote.."Ferrera has a system where he averages NYSE advancers less decliners over a 18 day period. When it gets below -400 and you have an up close it is a buy if the market has dropped at least 14%.Well last night got under -400 and also closed up but the market has only fallen 9%.
So it isn't a valid buy but probably worth something in the short term".
Heres Firdays Intraday chart showing a Inverted H&S
Will it retest the neckline or just keep going?
Chance's are it will be a good bounce if the H&S dosn't fail, the target will be +150 /170 pts above the RS Neckline Break..imo
Chance's are it will be a good bounce if the H&S dosn't fail, the target will be +150 /170 pts above the RS Neckline Break..imo
The Stoch is quite high but it can Stretch & Volumes Up.
Daily Chart.
So was the last 2 days a capitulation low and bottoms in.?
A ADAM & EVE Bottom with Eve's rounded bottom first..or are we seeing a Adam first with Eve to follow?
It would suit my threoy either way that this is a wave 4 its also close to the level, I thought wave 4 would be in the vid I did 2 weeks ago http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nwiYBzGBg8
It would suit my threoy either way that this is a wave 4 its also close to the level, I thought wave 4 would be in the vid I did 2 weeks ago http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nwiYBzGBg8
Note the bounce on the Daily Chart was off the bottom bollie..not a Fib or trendline unless I've got them wrong, keep in the back of your the mind that a retest of the low may still be on.
Now to the Yellow Arrows: The Top one is showning the 30d ma (Yellow) trying to push the 50d ma (Blue) down, This is Dangerous country if these 2 cross. Last time they came close was at the First Yellow Arrow near Wave 2.
Note what happened then when the 7d ma (Green) & 14d ma (Red) turned up to cross through them, This is on the cards here to if it repeats it could be a Cracker of a Run Up just looking at the distance from the MA's the Candles are but that wouldn't be a normal Wave5 unless it's a blow off Top..imo
Weekly Chart.
On the Weekly the bounce was off the 30d ma(yellow)also mentioned in the vid and has been support before.
Both Monthly & Weekly Candles are Spining Tops so undecided sentiment, the Hammer (SPRING) must confirm to make the Weekly's act as a Inverted Hammer..The Monthly's could still be anything lets hope for a Bullish Engulfing.
Daily & Weekly Inds have room to move this would support a move up to Wave 5 to complete the Inverted H&S Target 11274 (I H&S make there targets 90% of the time)before a ABC down.
Daily & Weekly Inds have room to move this would support a move up to Wave 5 to complete the Inverted H&S Target 11274 (I H&S make there targets 90% of the time)before a ABC down.
It needs to bounce off the Black Line or Trouble..imo
The Green & Red lines are buy sell triggers.
Monthly Chart
The Monthly charts Inds are on the high side EXCEPT the DEMA.(Trust the Dema imo) but they could tweek out a Wave 5 the Dema could do a lot more.. imo
If we look at horizontal support on the monthly chart back as far as 1999 (Yellow Rectangles & Blue Lines)it the market is saying this is where it should be not above or below but we live in volatile times..
A Wave 4 can't retrace more than 50% of Wave 3 that's just below 9500 if the count is valid.( If it does all bets are off)
Or is this a consolidation period coming up after wave 5? Good Question.. ATPIT I don't think so...we live in volatile times, but that can change, just be aware that after Wave 5 a larger correction maybe on the way.
The other thing to note on the monthly is the MA's and the Inds around 2003(Yelow Line)
If you all thought that was a great run look at now.(that was due to a commodities boom, what do we have now? after all the banking rubbish is sorted out.)
Expect the unexpeted...imo
Sure it's been a larger fall but also a faster recovery to a point of fair value.?
To round up if long tight trailing stops on either the Dow or XJO.
Cheers Pete
DOW 150210
This Week should be a turn.imo
Note the weekly inds..
So on the daily chart last weeks Hammer failed to confirm, now we have another & if we add the last 3 candles together we get a bullish candle & candle formation (2 Green Soliders) the last candle is allso sitting the small fib with the 14d ma (Red) flating out & the small SEC (White Dashed) turning up.
The Worry that remains is the 30d & 50d ma's (Yellow & Blue)
But if we have a up from here they will turn back up.
The Weekly Charts Short Entry has been triggered right where I thought it would, its been pretty good in the past for buy & sell signals also the 30d ma (Yellow) is atm the support level
The Monthly Charts Inds are still high so I'm still thinking this is a W4 & now we are headed to W5 if thats the case we will have to see whats the go then one would be expecting a ABC down.
Well what do you know I started writting this on Monday just about to post on Wednesday (West Aussie Time ) and the Dow bounces 170 pts..lol
Cheers Pete
DOW 200210
Hi All,
So are the Bulls back in town or are they ripping it apart?
Well last week went pretty much to plan W4 is complete and now we are in W5.Imo
I'd expect this week to be pretty similar having said that now watch it fall apart. lol.
Daily Chart
A few things to keep a eye on are the Spinning Top Candle made on Friday, you will see that its sitting on the 50d ma ( Blue ) with its tail on the 30d ma ( Yellow ) one would expect this to be support..
To be a Spinning Top it needs to confirm with a lower open and close with those ma's there I'd be saying it won't and would be expecting another strong up tonight bear in mind it may trade down to then and close higher a retest of support.
With 2 Eves and 1 Adam that’s a pretty strong bottom along with the ma's imo.
Also note the 7d ma (Green) has move up through the 14d ma (Red) Just as I thought a few Blog's back imo this will push the 30d ma up through the 50d along with the 7 and 14 causing a Golden Cross, as I've said before this could lead to a fast up which is not usual in a W5.
THAT COULD CAUSE A BLOW OFF TOP..NOT GOOD CHARTWISE.IMO.
SO TREAD WITH CARE AND BE AWARE TRADE THE TRADE YOU SEE NOT THE ONE YOU WANT TO SEE.
In saying that I must admit the Daily and Weekly Charts are looking very Bullish the Monthly is still looking for a Top but it may take some time or come at W5..imo
Something else to look at is there maybe a CUP forming on the Daily it may Double Top @ 10730 issh then form a Handle.
If it dose the Target would be around 11600 issh that would take care of the Inverted H&S Target of 11281 issh.
Or it may Double Top there then go down to the last low 9830 .
Atm I'm trying to show you all that is possible & has a good probably so you are aware of them and make your decisions at the time you need too, not when I update the Blog or Vid's we live in volatile times and that maybe too late.
As I said last week what is fair value look back to lasts weeks monthly chart keep that in mind...
And trade what they give you.
See the close up insert below.
This Weeks Quote of the Week is from Robbbbbbb. and pretty good advice..imo
"Another scenario, would be that we bolt back to the highs and would trap many and make the chart very unstable, and this is my reasoning for being patience and still a little cautious."
But then the Market will do its thing right or wrong so if its wrong look out..imo.
Heres the Over All Daily Chart since March note the green arrows on the MA's after each cross and the wave count.
Plus the Inds note the white arrows on the Dema last window and what was the out come after the SE & SE (Red-Blue) crossed above the Dema (Black) in the past.?
DOW 150210
This Week should be a turn.imo
Note the weekly inds..
So on the daily chart last weeks Hammer failed to confirm, now we have another & if we add the last 3 candles together we get a bullish candle & candle formation (2 Green Soliders) the last candle is allso sitting the small fib with the 14d ma (Red) flating out & the small SEC (White Dashed) turning up.
The Worry that remains is the 30d & 50d ma's (Yellow & Blue)
But if we have a up from here they will turn back up.
The Weekly Charts Short Entry has been triggered right where I thought it would, its been pretty good in the past for buy & sell signals also the 30d ma (Yellow) is atm the support level
The Monthly Charts Inds are still high so I'm still thinking this is a W4 & now we are headed to W5 if thats the case we will have to see whats the go then one would be expecting a ABC down.
Well what do you know I started writting this on Monday just about to post on Wednesday (West Aussie Time ) and the Dow bounces 170 pts..lol
Cheers Pete
DOW 200210
Hi All,
So are the Bulls back in town or are they ripping it apart?
Well last week went pretty much to plan W4 is complete and now we are in W5.Imo
I'd expect this week to be pretty similar having said that now watch it fall apart. lol.
Daily Chart
A few things to keep a eye on are the Spinning Top Candle made on Friday, you will see that its sitting on the 50d ma ( Blue ) with its tail on the 30d ma ( Yellow ) one would expect this to be support..
To be a Spinning Top it needs to confirm with a lower open and close with those ma's there I'd be saying it won't and would be expecting another strong up tonight bear in mind it may trade down to then and close higher a retest of support.
With 2 Eves and 1 Adam that’s a pretty strong bottom along with the ma's imo.
Also note the 7d ma (Green) has move up through the 14d ma (Red) Just as I thought a few Blog's back imo this will push the 30d ma up through the 50d along with the 7 and 14 causing a Golden Cross, as I've said before this could lead to a fast up which is not usual in a W5.
THAT COULD CAUSE A BLOW OFF TOP..NOT GOOD CHARTWISE.IMO.
SO TREAD WITH CARE AND BE AWARE TRADE THE TRADE YOU SEE NOT THE ONE YOU WANT TO SEE.
In saying that I must admit the Daily and Weekly Charts are looking very Bullish the Monthly is still looking for a Top but it may take some time or come at W5..imo
Something else to look at is there maybe a CUP forming on the Daily it may Double Top @ 10730 issh then form a Handle.
If it dose the Target would be around 11600 issh that would take care of the Inverted H&S Target of 11281 issh.
Or it may Double Top there then go down to the last low 9830 .
Atm I'm trying to show you all that is possible & has a good probably so you are aware of them and make your decisions at the time you need too, not when I update the Blog or Vid's we live in volatile times and that maybe too late.
As I said last week what is fair value look back to lasts weeks monthly chart keep that in mind...
And trade what they give you.
See the close up insert below.
This Weeks Quote of the Week is from Robbbbbbb. and pretty good advice..imo
"Another scenario, would be that we bolt back to the highs and would trap many and make the chart very unstable, and this is my reasoning for being patience and still a little cautious."
But then the Market will do its thing right or wrong so if its wrong look out..imo.
Heres the Over All Daily Chart since March note the green arrows on the MA's after each cross and the wave count.
Plus the Inds note the white arrows on the Dema last window and what was the out come after the SE & SE (Red-Blue) crossed above the Dema (Black) in the past.?
That should give you something to think about I'll Finish it in the morning Cheers Pete
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